Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 4.529226 5.420033 6.411554 7.592905 8.957772 10.480687 12.303926
2025-02-23 3.076494 4.164724 5.504393 7.258324 9.475545 12.165239 15.652506
2025-03-02 2.184598 3.296508 4.790042 6.906938 9.787868 13.524269 18.680119
2025-03-09 1.700466 2.820878 4.442874 6.900178 10.453083 15.315474 22.363758
2025-03-16 1.365920 2.470146 4.179978 6.926810 11.111606 17.106442 26.162177
2025-03-23 1.108539 2.174466 3.931526 6.909447 11.664421 18.756926 29.863964
2025-03-30 0.863183 1.839091 3.551970 6.612404 11.727085 19.657222 32.507291
2025-04-06 0.717551 1.647643 3.374333 6.606110 12.224918 21.230323 36.251263
2025-04-13 0.595235 1.471491 3.189635 6.551988 12.620824 22.654272 39.845706
2025-04-20 0.542150 1.425313 3.236798 6.912673 13.750113 25.337242 45.616673
2025-04-27 0.482804 1.351419 3.215871 7.138372 14.654363 27.703108 51.016316
2025-05-04 0.441070 1.308423 3.249348 7.468633 15.771598 30.500385 57.299704
2025-05-11 0.374296 1.190738 3.110618 7.448058 16.252607 32.264653 62.015630
2025-05-18 0.302192 1.039503 2.870857 7.185576 16.241719 33.154592 65.284879
2025-05-25 0.239853 0.895647 2.619536 6.858856 16.062060 33.712171 67.990354
2025-06-01 0.205117 0.821915 2.523138 6.859428 16.539780 35.514171 73.032667
2025-06-08 0.176964 0.759927 2.444504 6.888392 17.075354 37.456975 78.442187
2025-06-15 0.151296 0.697607 2.352714 6.871943 17.508163 39.224338 83.620831
2025-06-22 0.120588 0.605570 2.159436 6.576567 17.294245 39.691910 86.353589
2025-06-29 0.103449 0.558272 2.084877 6.570393 17.727083 41.484188 91.733008
2025-07-06 0.087672 0.510035 1.997228 6.516554 18.042056 43.051036 96.752711
2025-07-13 0.083220 0.509457 2.059296 6.875570 19.362771 46.795415 106.285725
2025-07-20 0.076218 0.494621 2.072369 7.100229 20.378530 49.952605 114.792015